RESEARCH

PUBLICATIONS

“Understanding Intimate Partner Violence” (with Lisa Blaydes and James D. Fearon). American Review of Political Science 28:351-374.

Violence against women occurs at high rates in societies across the world. The most common form is intimate partner violence, abuse perpetrated against a spouse or intimate relationship partner. We present a household bargaining model that seeks to clarify causal mechanisms and to identify key pathways by which economic, political, legal, and cultural factors external to households influence domestic abuse rates, gender equity within relationships, and rates of relationship dissolution. We relate key parameters to factors that differ across societies and over time, including economic opportunities for women, laws that criminalize domestic abuse, and social norms associated with gender equality. We review research associated with these topics to establish what we know and do not know about the production of violence against women in households. While much of this literature is outside of the field of political science, we highlight opportunities for political scientists to contribute to our understanding of how and why domestic violence persists in the world today.

WORKING PAPERS

"Return Without Peace: Global Patterns of Refugee Repatriation, 1980–2024." Available upon request.

When do refugees return to their countries of origin? Contrary to the conventional expectation that repatriation follows peace, most refugee returns occur during ongoing conflict, and many refugees never return even after wars end. I argue that return is often driven not by improved security at home but by adverse shocks in host states, particularly war and the adoption of forced return policies. Using new global data on refugee stocks, returns, forced return policies, and UN repatriation funding from 1980 to 2024, I use two-way fixed effects models to identify the determinants of repatriation. The results show that asylum-country push factors, especially forced return policies and conflict in host states, are significantly stronger predictors of return than conditions in countries of origin. Complementary archival case studies trace how host-country shocks, international assistance, and refugees’ perceptions of safety and economic opportunity influence return decisions. Together, these findings highlight the central role of host-state politics and regional conflict in shaping repatriation in the low- and middle-income countries that host most of the world’s refugees.

“Examining the Link between Aid and Support for Refugees: USAID Cuts and Kakuma Camp, Kenya.” Available upon request.

How do refugee aid cuts affect host citizens and their support for refugees, their government, and international actors? This study exploits a natural experiment - the 2025 U.S. foreign assistance cuts in Kenya, which reduced cash assistance and food rations - to study this question. Using a panel survey of 600 respondents at two-month intervals, I implement a differences-in-differences design comparing a treated town adjacent to the camp (Kakuma) to a control town (Isiolo), and a secondary within-treatment differences-in-differences comparing more- versus less-exposed residents in Kakuma, to estimate economic, security, attitudinal, and political effects. I also conduct in-depth interviews with refugee leaders. Preliminary findings from two survey waves show that hosts nearest the camp are beginning to experience worsening food security and higher exposure to crime as the refugee economy contracts. Attitudes toward refugees are shifting modestly nationwide, with declining support for refugee hosting, while those most exposed become more supportive of camp closure. Yet respondents overwhelmingly blame the U.S. administration rather than Kenyan authorities, and empathy for refugees remains high. These results suggest that the developmental and pacifying benefits of refugee hosting may be conditional on foreign aid, and that political accountability for aid cuts is directed internationally rather than domestically.

“Support for Refugee Integration in a Major Refugee-Hosting Country: Evidence from Kenya” (with Adam Lichtenheld). Under review. Preprint.

What drives public support and opposition to refugee integration in low- and middle-income countries? States have increasingly adopted policies that expand refugees' rights and promote their economic and social inclusion. We provide the first nationwide evidence on public attitudes in Africa by examining Kenya’s new refugee integration law during a rare window between its passage and implementation. Using a nationally representative survey and two experiments, we examine how support varies by policy dimension, refugee nationality, and citizen characteristics. Support for integration is surprisingly high, though citizens favor economic inclusion over free movement, and express lower support for Somali than South Sudanese refugees. Cultural proximity, humanitarian motives, and security concerns shape preferences more than economic factors. Support is highest among citizens with ethnic kinship or close contact with refugees, while opposition to Somalis and free movement is driven primarily by fears of insecurity and resource competition.

WORKS IN PROGRESS

“How Refugee Crises End.” Book project.

“Building Business Networks to Strengthen Refugee Economic and Social Integration” (with Annet Adong, Claire Clingain, Jens Hainmueller, Adam Lichtenheld, David Musiime, Alex Wendo, Sigrid Weber, Jessica Wolff, and Andrew Zeitlin). IRC Re:BUiLD project website.

“Foreign Influence and Expatriates: Cultural Threat and Attitudes towards Great Powers in Africa.”

“Trump, U.S. Retrenchment, and Enduring Soft Power: Evidence from Kenya.”

OTHER WRITINGS

“Kenya Embraces Refugee Integration – and Citizens Are on Board” (with Adam Lichtenheld and Tolossa Asrat). The New Humanitarian. Republished in The East African.